采用格兰杰(Granger)因果检验法,从自然因素的角度,即从天文因子(太阳黑子数SSN)和地球运动因子(地极移动X方向和Y方向)的角度,对我国近百年地面温度(TC)的变化进行了归因分析。所得结果如下:滞后1~11年内,SSN都不是TC的Granger原因;对于TC和极移X方向,当滞后6年时信度最高,此时极移X方向是TC的Granger原因(87%信度)。研究结果可能暗示,极移X方向的变化可能会导致6年后中国地面气温的变化。

The attribution analysis of China surface temperature(TC) in the recent 100 years is done from the angle of the astronomical factor(sunspot number, SSN) and the earth movement factor(polar shift x direction and y direction ) by using Granger causality test. The results are as follows:(1) SSN is not the Granger cause of TC in all of 1 to 11 years lags;(2) when the lag is 6 years, conifdence is the highest, at this time polar shift x direction is the Granger cause of TC (87%conifdence);(3) when the lag is 12 years, TC is the Granger cause of the polar shift y direction, the conifdence is 86%. The research results of the paper suggest that the change of polar shift x direction possibly results in the change of TC, and the change of TC possibly inlfuences the change of the polar shift y direction.

鉴于中国缺少高空间分辨率且时间跨度较长的格点气候数据集,基于国家气象局气象信息中心发布的中国753个台站地面气候月值数据集,使用国际常用的ANUSPLIN软件进行空间插值,建立了1951-2012年中国月值气温和降水量的空间超高分辨率(0.025?×0.025?,约2.8 km×2.8 km)格点数据集(简称LZU0025).该数据集与较高分辨率(0.5?×0.5?)的University of Delaware(UDEL), Climate Prediction Center(CPC)全球格点数据集在刻画中国温度和降水时空变化上具有一致性.所建立的格点数据集还可以更好地刻画中国复杂地形下的气温和降水量的时空特征,具有超高空间分辨率和较长时间序列的优点.依据本文建立的高分辨率格点数据集,发现1951-1980年间中国大陆气温最低且以波动为主,20世纪80年代开始气温快速升高,近10年来气温最高但增温趋缓.全国年平均降水量变化无明显趋势,但受西风环流控制的我国西北干旱区降水有增加趋势,而受东亚季风环流控制的华北地区降水有明显减少趋势.

In view of the small amount of datasets with low resolution and of short-term duration in China, the monthly air temperature and precipitation gridded datasets (LZU0025 in short) were constructed here based on the climatic monthly dataset from China Meteorological Administration using the software ANUSPLIN. This dataset covers the period from 1951 to 2012 with a horizontal resolution of 0.025? latitude by 0.025?latitude over China. And our test analysis was also compared with the results obtained by Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and University of Delaware (UDEL) dataset. The results suggested that air temperature and precipitation over China from LZU0025 dataset exhibited coherent variations compared to the UDEL and CPC, and it could well describe the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation under the complex topography. Additionally, our results that were based on LZU0025 showed that the temperature over China had been changing from low level in the earl

采用中国气象科学研究院（CAMS）中尺度云参数化模式对2010年4月20日山西省一次春季层状降水云系的宏微观结构，特别是垂直方向上的微物理结构进行了数值模拟和分析。利用携带云粒子探测设备的飞机对该次层状云系进行了两次云物理探测飞行，并将飞机探测所获取的数据和图像资料与数值模拟结果进行了对比研究。模拟结果显示：该次降水过程以层状冷云降水为主，云中过冷水含量丰富，云系存在明显的3层结构，地面降水主要来自于云中高层冰晶、雪、霰等冰相粒子的融化和低层云水的转化。数值模拟与飞机探测对比分析显示，高空温度、湿度和高度的配置两者基本一致，数值模拟不同高度的云粒子相态、垂直方向云水比含水量与飞机探测获取的云粒子图像和云液态水含量的垂直结构基本吻合，但数值模拟的云中各种水成物粒子出现的高度较飞机探测偏高。

The CAMS meso-scale cloud model is introduced and operationally applied since 2009 in Shanxi Prov-ince.The macro and micro structure of stratiform precipitation clouds,especially the vertical micro-physi-cal structure are simulated and analyzed for a spring stratiform precipitation process in Shanxi Province on 20 April 2010 using the model.Two cloud physical detection flights are carried out by using weather modi-fication plane with equipments of droplet measurement technologies (DMT)in the same place during the same period of the day.The data and images from flight detection and results of numerical simulation are compared and studied.Simulation results show that the precipitation process mainly comes from cold strat-iform cloud.The cloud contains a lot of supercooled water,and the thickness of the rich supercooled water layer is about 4000 meters.The temperature of the supercooled layer is about 0 to -40℃,and the ratio content of the supercooled cloud water is about 0.1—

2010年6月中国南方发生持续性强降水,其强度与2008年6月相当,超过近年来其他年份。但是,与2008年6月相比,2010年6月对流层中低层低值系统活动在青藏高原至长江中下游地区异常频繁,副热带高压(副高)位置异常偏西、强度偏强,导致低层异常风场辐合区及强降水区域相对偏北。分析2010年6月14—24日中国南方连续出现的4次持续性强降水过程,发现南亚高压、对流层中层的中纬度槽脊和西太平洋副高以及低层切变线和东移低涡是造成持续性强降水的主要天气系统。利用WRF模式对2010年6月强降水过程实施显式对流集合模拟试验,在控制试验重现观测到的地面降水和天气系统特征的基础上,在敏感性试验中将青藏高原的地表短波反照率修改为1.0,对比两组模拟试验的结果表明:控制试验中青藏高原的地表感热加热作用使得高原及其周边地区的大气温度发生变化,相应的热成风平衡调整使得对流层低层至高层大气环流和天气系统特征发生显著变化,增强了中国南方的持续性降水。200 hPa青藏高原西部形成反气旋性环流异常,东部形成气旋性环流异常,青藏高原东部南下的冷空气加强,中国南方辐散增强;500 hPa青藏高原北部的脊加强,中国东部的槽加深,副高西北侧的西南风明显增强,从青藏高原向下游传播的正涡度也显著加强;850 hPa的低涡强烈发展并逐步东移,华南沿海的西南低空急流更为强盛,导致降水区的水汽辐合、上升运动及降水强度都增强。

Persistent severe rainfall occurs over southern China during June 2010,with a magnitude being comparable to June 2008 and exceeding the other recent years.The June of 2010 is characterized by frequent occurrences of low-value systems in the middle- and low- troposphere from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River,and the significant-ly intensified West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH),leading to more northward located low-level anomalous wind convergence and rain bands compared to June of 2008.Analyzing the four successive persistent severe rainfall events over southern China during 14-24 June 2010,it is found that the South Asian high,the middle-latitude trough and ridge and the WPSH in the mid-dle troposphere,as well as the shear lines and eastward-moving vortices in the lower troposphere are the main synoptic systems inducing the persistent severe rainfall.Moreover,an ensemble of convection-permitting simulations (CTL)is carried out using the WRF model for