运用改进的人口承载力P-R-E模型,采用《宁夏统计年鉴2011》中宁夏各县市区人口、GDP、水资源、粮食产量、农林牧渔业产值等指标,计算宁夏各县市区人口承载量和人口承载力指数。结果显示各县市区人口承载力相对富余的有灵武市、银川市辖区;轻度盈余的有石嘴山市辖区、利通区、永宁县、贺兰县、平罗县;基本平衡的有青铜峡市;轻度超载的有沙坡头区、中宁县和盐池县;严重超载的有原州区、隆德县、泾源县、同心县、红寺堡区、西吉县、彭阳县、海原县。最后,结合宁夏主体功能区划方案,并就各县市区的实际情况,对各县市区PRED的协调发展和生态移民的迁入与迁出情况做出分析,以期为宁夏各县市区的人口和经济社会发展建言献策。
By using the improved Population-Resources-Economy (P-R-E) model of population carrying capacity,the popula-tion supporting capacity and population bearing capacity index of Ningxia counties and urban districts are calculated. The data is from Ningxia Statistical Yearbook 2011,including the index of population,Gross Domestic Product (GDP),water resources, food production, the gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery etc. The results showed that the areas that had relative surplus population carrying capacity included Lingwu City,Yinchuan municipal district,the mild sur-plus places were Shizuishan municipal districts, Litong region,Yongning County,Helan County,Pingluo county;The basic bal-ance place was Qingtongxia City,the mild overload places were Shapotou Region,Zhongning County and Yanchi County;The serious overload places were Yuanzhou Region,Longde County,Jingyuan County,Tongxin County,Hongsibaou Region, Xiji County, PengyangCounty, Haiyuan county. F