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双语推荐：地质风险分析

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地质风险概率法被广泛应用于油气资源评价中的地质风险评价。由于很难直接定义每一地质评价因子的评价（“打分”）概率模型，专家给出的都是每一评价因子的确定性评价值（“点估计”）——单一的、确定性评价结果并不能够很好地反映目标区域复杂地质情况的多种可能性，不可避免地出现含油气有无的高估或低估的情况。结合油气资源一体化评价软件（ PetroV）的开发经验，从如何更客观地去描述地质评价因子的不确定性入手，阐述如何采用多种不确定性分析技术，更好地融合、体现专家经验以及客观表达地下复杂地质情况，从而提高地质风险概率法的不确定性表达能力：（1）通过自信度转换数学模型体现专家主观认知的不确定性；（2）将专家的定性认知进行合理的知识规则化转换，充分量化地质模型的不确定性；（3）基于地质风险概率法数学模型，利用蒙氏模拟计算符合概率分布特征的地质风险评价结果；（4）据地质风险不确定性评价结果，可获取目标区域地质风险评价的多分位评价值，为后续的勘探决策给出尽可能全面的决策方案。
The margin and condition probability analysis is broadly applied to the geological risk evaluation for an im-mature play with joining the“success” probabilities subjectively specified for those independently involved geological factors. Considering that it is difficult to specify a reasonable scoring distribution curve for each geological factor, this method contributes a“point” estimation about whether there exists petroleum resource. Obviously, subjected to lack efficient ways to encode the information about geological multi-scene of subsurface and possibi-lities for each geological factor, the above crisp estimation conclusion would be generally either higher or lower. In order to enhance the capability of uncertainty expression of geological risk evaluation, this paper presents three heuristic mathematic models to deeply quantify the understanding of a geological expert and objectively delineate the possi-bilities of subsurface occasion, etc. Meanwhile, the uncertaint

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我国高速铁路发展势头迅猛,特别是在西部山区修建隧道时,将会遇到较多的地质条件技术复杂的高风险隧道。但由于地质勘测深度的不一,不可能全部揭示尤其是高风险长大隧道的所有地质风险,这就要求在施工过程中,必须要有针对性地采用地质超前预报手段,并开展全面的地质调查工作,将更深入地了解隧址所在区域的地质环境及条件,对不良地质进行超前揭示或预报,综合分析隧道所通过区域的地质情况,根据现场实际情况及综合分析判释资料进行动态设计,对于指导现场施工,规避施工中及后期运营风险,是十分必要的。文章以贵广铁路斗篷山隧道为例,在其施工中所遇不良地质情况及采取的措施,对岩溶高风险长大隧道的地质情况进行简单分析,希望对大家有借鉴意义。
The development of the high-speed railway is booming in China.More high-risk tunnels with complicated geo-logical conditions are encountered especially in western mountains.However,due to the different depth of the geological survey,it is impossible to reveal all the geologic risks,particularly for those high-risk long tunnels,so it is required that the advanced geological forecast must be adopted specifically during construction.Besides,all-round geological survey shall be carried out so that the geological environment and conditions in the area where the tunnel is located shall be in-depth known.It is very necessary to predict the unfavorable geology,to comprehensively analyze the geological condi-tions in the tunnel area and to carry out dynamic designs according to the on-site conditions and analysis data,in order to guide the site construction and avoid the operational risks during and after construction.In the paper,taken Doupeng-shan tunnel in Guiyang-Guangzhou railway as an exa

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受山区地形的限制，山岭隧道洞口及浅埋段地质条件一般较为恶劣，容易造成洞口失稳、大变形等风险，对隧道的安全施工形成较大隐患。基于王北凹隧道的地质勘察资料、水文地质资料及相关设计资料，通过专家调查法对隧道洞口及浅埋段风险源进行辨识与排序，对其失稳可能发生的风险等级进行了分析，并提出了相应的风险控制措施。
As being limited with mountainous topography,there is normally quite seriousgeological conditions for the shallow-buried portal section of tunnels,which will easily cause risks as as portal instability or large deforma-tion and may lead to quite high danger for safety of tunnel construction.Based on geological survey,hydrogeolo-gy and design data of Wangbeiao Tunnel,the risk factors for the shallow-buried portal section of tunnel have been recognized and sorted by experts investigation method,the risk level of the possible instability has been ana-lyzed,and the risk control measures have been put forward.

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对电力工程建设中潜在的自然地质风险进行了全面分析和识别,筛选了电力工程建设中五种最常见的地质风险,并进行了分级和评价,同时提出了各级风险的应对措施,以期最大限度的控制风险发生带来的损失。
The paper analyzes and identifies potential natural geological risks of power engineering construction,selects five common geological risks of power engineering construction,carries out grading and evaluation,and simultaneously puts forward corresponding countermeasures,with a view to control risk cost as much as possible.

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采用定性分析与定量评价相结合的方法，依据特大型滑坡区域地质环境、滑坡基本特征和成因机制，结合滑坡变形特征与稳定性、危险性和易损性评价，对全省173处单体特大型滑坡风险性进行综合判定。在综合分析地形因素、地质因素的基础上，将全省划分为六个评价区，采用层次分析法，在易发性、危险性、易损性分析评价的基础上（不考虑承灾对象抵御灾害能力），对六个评价区1223个评价单元进行风险评价，确定该单元风险性等级，根据同一风险性集中连片的原则，确定区域风险性预测评价图。
The paper did comprehensive risk judgement for 173 large-scale landslides in Hubei province using combina-tion with qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation which is based on regional geological environment ,basic charac-teristics of large-scale landslides ,genetic mechanism and combination with deformation feature and stability of landslides , danger and vulnerability evaluation .The authors divided the evaluation area into 6 regions based on topography and geo-logical factors.Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP),1 223 units of 6 evaluation regions were evaluated and graded in risk on the basis of liability ,danger ,and vulnerability analysis and evaluation ( regardless of ability which hazard-affected object resist disaster ) ,then the figure of regional risk prediction and evaluation was determined based on the principle of the region concentrated into one part which has the same risk grade .

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通过对国内外油气勘探风险分析技术应用现状的系统介绍,分析目前勘探存在的主要问题,总结出今后勘探风险分析技术发展主要有五大趋势:一是勘探风险分析更加重视资料信息的应用,二是风险分析技术与商业或经济储量评价紧密结合,三是风险分析始终贯穿勘探评价和决策全过程,四是数学地质学与计算机的发展将促进勘探风险分析的定量化发展,五是学科交叉和综合研究将随着石油地质理论的发展而发展。
Through the systematic introduction of the application status of petroleum exploration risk analysis within China and aboard, this paper analyzed the major problems in the current exploration and summarized that there would be five trends in the future technology development of the exploration risk analysis. The first one is that the exploration risk analysis will pay more attention to the application of data and information. The second one is that the risk analysis technology will integrate with the commercial or economic reserve evaluation closely. The third one is that the risk analysis will run through the whole process of exploration evaluation and decision. The forth one is that Mathematical Geology and the development of Computer Science will accelerate the quantita-tive development of the exploration risk analysis. The fifth one is that the multi-disciplinary and comprehensive study will mature with the development of the theory of Petroleum Geology.

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针对拟建的渤海海峡隧道竖井施工进行风险分析,确定了施工期间的风险并结合风险权重分析排序,依次为支护结构失效风险最小、自然灾害风险较大、竖井开挖风险最大,并通过风险评估确定了突水、突泥风险为关键风险。综合考虑关键风险与其他风险对竖井施工的影响,从地质预报、竖井吊装设备的选择与吊装过程控制、竖井开挖风险控制、自然灾害风险的预防、竖井支护结构的质量控制以及建立竖井施工作业安全制度等方面提出了对渤海海峡隧道竖井施工风险的应对措施,为后续施工提供参考。
In view of the shaft construction risk analysis of Bohai Strait tunnel,this paper determines risks during construction. Combining the risk weight analysis ranking,the sequence in turn from low to high is supporting structure failure risk,natural disaster risk and shaft excavation risk. Through risk assessment,we de-termine that the risk of water inrush and mud outburst is the key risk. Considering the influences of key risk and other risks on the shaft construction,we put forward response measures about shaft construction risk of Bohai Stiait tunnel from the geological forecast,shaft hoisting equipment selection and hoisting process control,shaft exca-vation risk control,natural disaster risk prevention,shaft supporting structure for quality control and the estab-lishment of the shaft system construction,which provide guidance for the subsequent construction.

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针对目前隧道施工地质风险预报系统预报准确率不高的问题,分析了TSP203预报系统存在的问题:1)数据采集触发方式存在时间延迟误差;2)存在隧道声波干扰;3)检波器耦合方式造成采集的地震波记录信号容易失真;4)数据处理手段简单。从预报原理出发,TGP针对这些问题进行了改进,同时强调需要结合工程地质知识进行综合分析,以及合理选择与其他手段的有效配合。通过在具体工程中的应用实践证明,改进后的地质预报系统很大程度上提高了隧道施工地质风险预报的准确性。
The accuracy of most advance geology prediction systems available in tunnel construction is not high.In the paper,the problems of TSP203 advance geology prediction system are analyzed in terms of the following aspects:1 )The trigger mode of the data collection system has time delay deviation;2)There exists acoustic interference;3)The cou-pling mode of the detector causes the distortion of the seismic wave signals collected;4)The data treatment method is too simple.Regarding the problems of TSP203,TGP has made optimizations.TGP emphasizes that comprehensive anal-ysis should be made on basis of the engineering geology knowledge and that other proper geology prediction methods should be adopted to assist TGP.The application of the optimized TGP in tunnel construction demonstrates that the ad-vance geology prediction accuracy has been well improved.

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地质资料蕴含着丰富的地质、矿产、国土资源的信息，在国民经济建设和地质矿产科学研究，矿业经济可持续发展，减少地质矿产投资风险和重复投入，加强矿产资源合理开发利用等方面具有重要意义。为更好推进地质资料的社会化服务进程，现行《地质资料管理条例》确立了地质资料统一汇交、权益保护和公开利用三项基本制度。本文从权利归属、权利性质、保护期限以及权利救济手段等方面，对汇交人权益保护制度进行解读和分析，目的在于为我国地质资料汇交人合法权益保护制度的完善提供有益探索。
Geological data contain plenty of information on geology ,mineral and land resources .Current“Regulations on Administration of Geological Data” has defined three basic systems of geological data ,the unified submission ,open utilization and protecting rights and interests of submitter ,to promote socialized service of geological data .Here ,some understandings and analysis about protecting lawful rights and interests of submitters system are presented in order to explore opinions to improve it .

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二氧化碳地质储存是减少二氧化碳排放的有效技术之一，为确保储存工作的有效性、安全性和持久性，二氧化碳地质储存泄露途径和环境影响研究很有必要。作者通过对人为泄露通道、地质构造泄露通道以及跨越盖层和水力圈闭泄露通道等三类泄露途径分析，为储存区选择和储存工程实施提供了依据和保障；通过研究二氧化碳地质储存对健康、土壤、水体等因素可能造成的环境影响和风险，为二氧化碳地质储存环境与安全风险监测提供了方向和目标。
CO2 geological storage is one of the most effective techniques to reduce CO2 emission. In order to guarantee the effectiveness,safety and durability, the study on leakage routes and environmental influence of CO2 geological storage as well as its safety and durability must be implemented. We analyzed the artificial leakage channels, geological structure leakage channels and leakage channels across the cover layer and hydraulic trap, to ensure the storage area selection and storage technique. The analysis of possible environmental impact and risk factors of storage on health, soil and water provides the direction and objective of risk monitoring for CO2 geological storage.

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