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双语推荐：短时临近预报

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利用常规气象资料和多普勒天气雷达回波资料对2014年7月4日发生在湖州德清的短时暴雨天气过程进行了分析,结果显示:在大尺度天气背景下,辅以精细化的数值预报产品,降水云团的移动发展可通过外推预报技术进行预报,预报员可提前1~2 h对此次短时暴雨过程作出预警,提高这类局地强对流天气临近预报的准确率。
Using conventional meteorological data and Doppler weather radar echo data,short rainstorm July 4,2014 occurred in Huzhou Deqing was analyzed. The results showed that in the large-scale weather background,combined with the refinement of the numerical forecast products,mobile development could be forecast precipitation clouds by extrapolation forecasting techniques.Forecasters could make short rainstorm warning for this process 1~2 h ahead of time,so as to improve accuracy for this kind of strong convective weather nowcasting.

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朝阳新一代天气雷达作为全国新一代天气雷达组网雷达之一,为临近天气预报和灾害性天气预报提供了高质量的大气观测资料,在短时临近预报和灾害性天气预报、预警业务、人工影响天气业务、重大社会活动和重要专题气象保障服务过程中发挥着不可替代的作用,是气象防灾减灾的重要手段之一,收到了明显的经济效益和社会效益。
As the new generation weather radar ,Chaoyang new generation weather radar could provide atmospheric observation data with high quality for nowcasting and severe weather forecast.It played an important role in short-time forecast ,severe weather forecastimg ,weather modification , major social events and important topics meteorological support services.It could achieve significant economic and social benefits.

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利用自动气象站逐小时地面观测资料,采用客观检验方法对北京市气象局快速更新循环预报(BJ-RUC)系统在2008 2010年5-9月的预报结果进行检验,初步评估了BJ-RUC系统对地面气象要素的业务预报性能。结果表明:BJ-RUC系统对地面气象要素预报与实况的变化趋势有很好的一致性。其中,2 m温度预报整体偏高,误差范围为-1.5~1.5℃,早上和傍晚偏大,正午偏小;2 m相对湿度的预报整体偏低,误差为-25%~0,白天偏大,夜间偏小;10 m风速预报明显偏大,午后尤为显著,误差为0.6~1.2 m·s~(-1);6 h累积降水的晴雨预报效果较好,TS评分可达到0.4。系统在初始起报时次的稳定性较差,从第3个起报时次开始逐渐稳定,但预报误差随着预报时效的增长逐渐增大,12 h内的预报误差较小,预报结果较可靠,在短时临近预报中具有参考价值。
The rapid update cycle (RUC)based on the rapid update cycle data assimilation system and high reso-lution meso-scale numerical prediction system is widely applied at home and abroad.Using high frequency update cycle assimilation analysis based on dense meso-scale observations,RUC can provide high quality initial field for high resolution numerical model to produce refined numerical forecasts. Beijing rapid update cycle of assimilation forecast system (BJ-RUC)is established in 2007 and applied to operation in 2008 in China.The refined weather forecast products of BJ-RUC are important reference in daily weather forecast operation for forecasters.BJ-RUC is designed based on WRF model and WRF three-dimensional variational data assimilation system.Recent observations,including conventional observation from GTS global exchange,automatic weather station (AWS)observation and the high spatial and tempo-ral resolution unconventional observations,are assimilated at intervals of three hours using

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积状层状混合性降水云系是包头地区短时强降水的主要云系之一。利用巴彦淖尔、鄂尔多斯和呼和浩特新一代天气雷达回波拼图资料,对2013-09-18—19发生在包头地区的一次大到暴雨天气进行分析,发现积状层状混合性降水云系回波顶高的跃升、维持与地面产生短时强降水有较好的对应关系。这对日常短时临近预报预警有一定的指导意义。
Stratiform-cumuliform hybrid cloud is one of the most principal precipitation system that can cause the short-duration sever rain process in Baotou. This paper make use of the radar echoes of Bayannaor, Erdos and hohhot, analyze the heavy to torrential rain process from September 18th to 19th .It can be found that the updraft and stagnation of ET has associated with the rainfall intensity, and be favorable for daily issuance of weather forecasts and weather warnings.

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简要总结了近年来风廓线雷达探测资料在北京市气象局的业务应用情况。风廓线雷达为实时监测、分析天气系统尤其是中小尺度天气系统的发生、发展提供了可能。其资料直接或二次开发后应用到天气监测、个例分析中，有利于加强预报员对中小尺度天气系统物理机制的进一步认识和理解，提高短时临近预报水平。风廓线雷达和微波辐射计配合使用，可以构建特种探空，用于补充常规探空时空分辨率的不足。该文目的旨在为风廓线雷达的业务应用提供更好的参考和借鉴。
The paper brielfy summarized the business application of wind proifle radar data in Beijing Meteorological Bureau in recent years. Wind proifler radar provides the possibility for real-time monitoring and analyzing the occurrence and development of weather especially the medium and small scale systems. It is helpful to have a better understanding of medium and small scale weather system physical mechanism for the weatherman so as to improve the nowcasting forecast level, if the direct or processing data of wind proifle radar is applied to weather monitoring and any case study. Wind proifle radar and microwave radiometer, used in conjunction, can build special soundings to make up a deifciency in time and space resolution of conventional soundings. This paper aims at providing a better reference to wind proifle radar applications.

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利用加密自动站资料、常规观测资料及多普勒雷达资料等，对2012年7月22日锦州东部地区短时大暴雨过程进行了天气尺度和中尺度诊断分析。分析发现锦州东部地区边界层中尺度辐合线的生成和发展，是其降水强度明显增幅的主要原因，是短时暴雨到大暴雨产生的启动机制。边界层辐合线造成水平场上的强烈风场辐合，增加该地区水汽和能量积聚，并触发该地区强烈的上升运动。另外，通过对雷达基本反射率因子图和径向速度图的分析，发现强回波区和逆风区的存在与强降水有着较好的相关，且逆风区提前于强降水出现，对短时临近强降水落区预报有很好的指示意义。
Based on the conventionally observational data,meteorological data from automatic weather sta-tions and Doppler radar data and so on,a short rainstorm event on July 22,2012 in The eastern part of Jinzhou was analyzed. The results show that the formation and development of The mesoscale convergence line is The main reason of increase in precipitation intensity, as well as the trigger mechanism for the Short-time Rainstorm on The eastern part of Jinzhou .Furthermore,the heavy rain storm occurres near the center of mesoscale low pressure and accompanies with them.The boundary layer convergence line increase the strong wind Convergence and accumulation about moisture and energy. In addition,through the analy-sis of the radar base reflectivity and radial velocity map,The results show that The heavy rain area has a better corresponding relationship with the adverse wind area and strong radar echo area. in addition the ad-verse wind area appears ahead of the strong precipitation, so the adver

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通过融合多普勒天气雷达资料与中尺度数值预报产品,发展了一种便于临近预报业务使用的方法。该方法首先通过相关分析计算当前相同时刻雷达估测降水与中尺度数值预报的反射率因子估测降水之间的位置偏差,导出一个位移偏差矢量场;然后,利用人机交互的方式对矢量场进行分区,并对各分区的矢量场进行平滑处理,计算出各分区的平均位移偏差矢量;最后,采用最小二乘法对各分区连续多次的平均位移偏差矢量进行线性拟合,得到各分区平均位移偏差矢量随时间的变化特征,订正未来时段相应区域的数值预报反射率因子估测降水的位置偏差。利用该方法对2012和2013年夏季发生在重庆西部、四川东部的3次强降水天气过程进行临近预报试验并对预报结果进行了检验,结果表明:对0~2 h的临近预报,融合预报效果总体上优于模式预报效果;另外,与雷达外推定量降水预报相比,0~1 h雷达外推预报效果优于融合预报效果,1~2 h融合预报效果优于雷达外推预报效果。
A nowcasting method based on blending Doppler weather radar data and mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP)model products is presented.The method is as follows:Firstly,by using cor-relation analysis,position errors are calculated between radar precipitation estimate and precipitation esti-mated from reflectivity factor from the output of NWP model in this same time,and thus displacement de-viation vectors fields are obtained.Then,displacement deviation vector fields are partitioned with human-computer interaction and each deviation vector field gets smoothed,so the average displacement deviation vector of each partition is obtained.Finally,the trend variation characteristic of average displacement devi-ation vector of each partition with time is established by using least square method to linearly fit the con-tinuous time multiple average displacement deviation vectors for each partition,and according to the trend, spatial position deviation of precipitation estimated f

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介绍了临近空间和临近空间环境的概念,分析了临近空间大气温度、风场、大气波动、电磁特征和光化学作用、电离层与中性大气的耦合、电流和高能粒子加热等物理变化过程,总结了临近空间天气探测、预报手段和技术,讨论了临近空间天气对飞行平台和仪器设备的影响。
The concepts of near space and near space environment were introduced. The character of air temperature, wind, atmospheric fluctuation, electromagnetic and photochemical processes, the coupling between the ionosphere and neutrality, electricity and heating and other high energy particles in the near space were analyzed. The method and technology of near space weather exploration and forecast was summarized. The influences of near space weather on flying platform and equipment were discussed.

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作者充分利用现有气象设备,采用多种高级编程语言,研制哈尔滨机场雷暴分析预报系统,其中利用现有气象信息网资源,实现初始数据自动读取和综合分析处理;采用相似分析技术,实现雷暴天气形势的自动相似判别;利用天气学方法和数理统计法,建立集成分析预报模式,实现0-24h雷暴概率短期预报;基于天气雷达回波,采用交叉相关算法,实现0-1h强对流临近预报预警。经应用表明,该系统运行及预报预警情况均达到了预期效果。
The study of the Harbin Airport Thunderstorm Analyzing and Forecasting System made full use of the exist-ing meteorological equipments and a variety of high-level programming languages,for example:it can reading and analyzing the initial data automatically by using the meteorological information network,discriminating the thunderstorm weather situ-ation automatically by using the analog discriminatory analysis method,issuing the 0-24h thunderstorm probability predic-tion which weights the established weather forecast model by using the synoptic forecasting and mathematical statistics meth-od,issuing the 0-1h thunderstorm nowcasting and warning by using the cross-correlation method based on weather radar echoes.The application shows that the system operation and nowcasing and warning are achieved the desired effect.

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针对风速预报中出现的资料获取困难、预报精度差等问题，文章提出采用临近历史数据的BP-神经网络风速短期预报模型，并重点对BP模型的输入层和隐含层参数进行估计。在一定范围内，枚举输入层和隐含层的参数，并采用大量数据进行模拟，同时采用SSE和MAE两种指标对模拟结果进行评价，得NT适合于风速预报的多个不同参数BP模型。同时将多个BP模型用于预报，发现预报结果精度都比较高，表明不同参数的BP模型均可用于预报且BP模型存在异参同效性。
Las the difficulty in data collection and poor precision in the wind speed forecast , the model based on BP-neural network for the short-term wind speed forecast by application of the recent historic data is proposed in the paper.Furthermore, estimates of parame-ters of the input layer and implication layer of the BP model are stressed.In a proper range, parameters of the input layer and implication layer are listed as well as data in a large quantity is applied for their simulation.Simultaneously, the simulation results are evaluated by application of SSE and MAE indicators.Therefore, the BP models with different parameters suitable for the wind speed forecast are gained.A couple of BP modes are applied for the wind speed forecast, showing that all the forecast precisions are higher.This proves that the BP models with different parameters can be applied for the wind speed forecast .They cause the same results although the parameters are different .

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